How Much Do Investment Losses Really Matter?
When it comes to managing your investments, losses can have a bigger impact than you might think.
The Impact of Early Losses
Imagine you retired in 1981 with $500,000. Your financial advisor told you that you could safely withdraw 4% of your savings each year for the rest of your life. Following this advice, you would have ended up with significantly more money in 2010 than you started with, thanks to favorable market conditions.
source: Directional Advisors
Now, let’s change the scenario. What if you retired in 1930 with the same $500,000 and the same 4% withdrawal rate? That scenario doesn’t turn out nearly as well for you.
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But wait! Isn’t that because of the Great Depression in 1930??
Well, the average annual return from 1930 to 1959 was 12% — which was the same annual return from 1981 to 2010!
Despite the same average annual returns you would have ended up with about half of your initial savings after 30 years if you started in 1930.
Why? Because the early years of the Great Depression were so devastating that your portfolio never fully recovered.
source: Directional Advisors
Sequence of Returns Risk
This example highlights a critical concept known as “sequence of returns risk.” It’s not just the average return that matters, but the order in which those returns occur. If you experience significant losses early in retirement, it can drastically reduce the longevity of your portfolio, even if the overall average return is strong.
Understanding how much you can afford to lose before it becomes detrimental is a key part of financial planning, though very few advisors do this level of analysis. In fact, this is an area of research pioneered by our founder. [1] [2]
Let’s Talk About Your Future
We’d love to help you navigate these complexities and create a plan tailored to your needs. At the end of the day, your job is to dream about your ideal retirement, and our job is to help you work out the details. By understanding your goals, we can develop a strategy that aims to protect your investments from significant losses and ensure a comfortable and secure future.
Investment losses matter more than you might think, especially when they occur early in your retirement. By recognizing the importance of sequence of returns risk and taking steps to mitigate those risks, you can better protect your dreams.
Let’s work together to create a plan that helps you navigate these challenges and secure your financial future.
This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
