Tag: Market Update

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

What a difference a few weeks makes! The main news on my radar is the yield curve, which has normalized for the first time in two years. This is important because it is, historically, the last signal we get before a recession. Interestingly, in its wake, markets have begun to falter. Of course, it is always difficult to tell if any selloff will be short lived or indicative of a longer trend, but in my view now is the time to adjust your portfolio to deal with a possible recession.

Here are some of the recessionary signals I have seen triggered:

Yield Curve: Historically, when you get paid more to tie up your money for 3 months than for 10 years, something is wrong. When that relationship normalizes (you are getting paid more for 10 year debt than 3-month debt), a recession is typically not far behind.

Unemployment: While the headline unemployment rate is not a very good picture of actual employment in the US, the trend is what matters. When the headline unemployment rate rises above its 12-month moving average, we tend to see a recession not far behind.

Fed Rate Cuts: After the Fed raises rates signficantly, rate cuts tend to be indicative of a storm brewing on the horizon. This is usually because the Federal Reserve sees the economy getting and takes steps to get ahead of it. However, the Fed never admits a recession is about to happen, you can only watch their actions. The recent rate cuts fall firmly in the “recessionary” category.

Manufacturing: US manufacturing has been in contraction for over two years. While this represents a minority of the economy, it tends to indicate that all is not well. We get more data on manufacturing in the week ahead.

Index of Leading Economic Indicators: This index is a combination of several indices together. Historically, it tends to peak and then decline. Currently, we have had the longest and deepest decline on record with no recession. Given everything else, however, it makes sense that we may now be on the precipice.

Bankruptcies: Bankruptcies have increased by about 40% over this time last year — a substantial figure! It is not much of a jump to assume that there is some stress in the economy with such a rise in bankruptcies.

I have always said that, while we may not know when the first drop of rain will fall, we can generally see if there is a storm on the horizon. I now see that storm. Taking precautiouns against it might make sense. Though, exactly what that means for you and your goals is very personal, and something we should discuss.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

Last week we saw lots of important economic figures, and most investors are overlooking the ever-more negative pitcture of the underlyling economy. Overall, consumers are becoming more strained, and using credit much more than expected. We are also seeing the number of people unemployed and underemployed grow.

The important figure this week will be inflation, as it hits just before next week’s Federal Reserve meeting (investors expect a cut next week). However, what most investors also forget is that rate cuts tend to happen just before a recession, so rate cuts are not necessarily a happy signal.

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There are some bright spots. Companies are making money (albeit barely), job openings remain strong, and consumers are still spending money.

The economy tends to move in a cycle. First, you have a healthy expansion which morphs into an unhealthy expansion. After these we typically see a pre-recessionary environment and then a recession. Each phase comes with its own unique signs, and, at least as I read the tea leaves, we are currently in the pre-recessionary phase. It tends to be characterized by slowing growth, mixed signals, and high valuations — almost exactly the combination we see in the economy today.

Chart of the Week

This week we are looking at the number of job openings, as a percentage of the population. This chart is showing us two main things:

• Job openings tend to fall ahead of a recession, and they have fallen quite strongly from their peak.
• After an initial overcorrection, job openings have fallen well below the pre-Covid growth trajectory (blue dotted line).

Job openings, after touching all-time highs, have fallen precipitously in the past two years. Overall, the growth rate in job openings has not nearly matched the pre-Covid growth rate, and I see this as a negative signal.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

This morning we got a look at the health of US manufacturing. It remains in contraction for another month — in fact, other than a brief moment of breakeven, US manufacturing has been in contraction for over two years now. We get data on the health of the services sector, which hosts the majority of US jobs. Services are expected to expand in November, which is a positive sign.

Also this week, we see the unemployment rate, job openings, and average hourly earnings, all of which are very important, both economically, and from the perspective of the Federal Reserve. At the moment, investors expect another rate cut at the Fed’s meeting in two weeks. But, the Fed has signaled that they are willing to wait if the economic data warrants it.

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Given earnings growth of 5.8% over this time last year, I am again insisting that stock valuations are stretched, and there is a lot of fragility in this marketplace. Of course, that can persist for some time before anything happens, but for investors nearing their goals, now is a good time to understand how losses can derail your plans.

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart, from Fathom Consulting, shows us what is driving US stocks higher. The “magnificent seven” stocks (Meta, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft) now represent about 45% of the market cap of the rest of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 index. In other words — just seven companies represent almost half of the value of large US companies. To me, that is unsustainable, longer-term.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The inflation report last week rattled the Fed a bit, responding that they don’t need to be in a hurry to cut interest rates. This forced markets to re-asses the path of rate cuts, though it is still likely that we see a cut at the December meeting. All of which pushed markets a little lower last week.

This week is a light data week. I expect investors will be processing the data — from earnings, the election, and the Fed — and updating their positioning accordingly. I will reiterate that I see some fragility in markets: valuations are stretched, which means that a small change in expectations can lead to a large change in price. Not to mention, there are still some problems lurking under the surface, like commercial real estate.

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Overall, I am reinforcing my cautious outlook. The underlying economic data is mixed, though trending negative, and companies have not been able to grow their earnings in a way that has kept up with price. I would like to see unemployment improve, earnings improve, and economic activity pick up steam. Until then, I am on a recession watch.

Exactly how all of this applies to you is dependent on your goals, and we’d like to offer a free risk assessment so that you can understand when investment losses are too much to recover from. Just click the button below for more info.

Chart of the Week

With earnings season almost complete, it is worth noting that price growth has far outstripped earnings growth over the past year. It is not unusual for that to happen but we typically see a correction to the trend, with either earnings growing faster or price coming down. My reading of the economy says that it is likely to be price coming down.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The election dominated the news last week, of course. Markets rallied strongly across the board, with the dollar strengthening globally. Bitcoin was a big winner, passing above $80,000 per coin. I have been a critic of cyptocurrency (here’s why), but I have softened in that view in recent years.

The Fed cut rates last week, as expected, and Powell reiterated the Fed’s changed view: that employment now has bigger risks than inflation. It seems likely that rates will continue to come down, and markets have an 85% chance that the Fed will cut again in December.

Most companies have reported earnings, and it looks like companies grew earnings by about 5% over this time last year. This is pretty dissappointing, especially when compared with the 36% run-up in the S&P 500. That run has been largely driven by investor’s willingness to pay higher valuations for the same stocks. Current valuations imply the S&P 500’s return will be in the 3%/year range over the next 10 years — not much to write home about. More on that in this week’s chart.

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Despite the past week’s rally, the underlying economic data has me very concerned. While it is possible that we buck historical precedent and return to strong growth, I think that is unlikely (indeed, Buffet himself has been to selling his profitable positions, and is now sitting on about 25% cash). More likely, we are late in the economic cycle and recession is closing in. Of course, exactly how we manage that in your portfolio is dependent on your goals.

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart comes to us from LPL Financial and demonstrates my concern with valuations. The price-to-earnings ratio is the price that investors are willing to pay for every $1 in company earnings. As this chart demonstrates, as P/E ratios get higher, 10-year returns tend to be much lower, including going negative. With its current P/E ratio, returns for the S&P 500 are implied to be in the 3% per year range.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

We are coming to the end of earnings season, with about 70% of major US companies having reported. It looks like we will end up with about 5% earnings growth for the third quarter, which — as I have mentioned before — is a very ambiguous signal.

Of course, we have an election in the US on Tuesday. Investors are likely to watch that outcome very closely as betting markets have the candidates practically tied. It is normal have excess volatility in markets right around the election and then see a run-up into the end of the year. Check out the chart from last week for a closer look at that dynamic.

On the data front: last week, inflation came in hotter than expected leaving investors wondering if the Fed will be able to cut rates at the pace they had previously thought. Also surprising, the US created a pathetic 12,000 new jobs last month. Even after adding back the Boeing strike and effects of the hurricane, that is still well below expectations. The headline unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, but that was due to more people leaving the workforce — not a good sign.

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This week is also the week the week the Fed meets to determine the Fed Funds rate. A cut is expected, but investors will watch Powell’s commentary very closely in the press conference to get a signal about how their path for rates may have shifted.

This is a busy week in markets!

Chart of the Week

One of the indicators I follow to help me determine the business cycle is the Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Typically, this indicator tends falls ahead of recessions. In the chart I’ve noted the number of months from the peak of the index to when a recession began. The previous record (since 1989) was 21 months. We are now in our 32nd month since the index peaked in March 2022, which is the longest streak on record.

Of course, it may be that this is a false signal and the Fed has engineered a soft landing. In that case, we should expect to see this index begin to rise again very soon.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

More earnings! This week we get important profit figures from oil & gas majors, like Chevron and ExxonMobil. Energy earnings are expected to decline by 27%, the largest decline of any S&P 500 sector. Looking at the companies that have already reported — which is only about a third of total companies — and the companies that have yet to report, it looks like earnings will grow somewhere around 4% for this quarter. Again, happy for the growth, but it is well below the growth rate needed to sustain the market rally we’ve seen this year, in my view.

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It is worth mentioning election-year dynamics now that the election is coming in to view. Historically, in presidential election years, we see some volatility around election day followed by a rally into the end of the year, however actual annual returns are not usualy much different from any other year (2008 being the big exception, but there were other dynamics at work that year). See this week’s chart to see what election years since 1984 look like.

This week we see important data: third-quarter GDP growth, job openings, unemployment (expected to hold around 4.1%), and PMIs. All of this data could move markets, and are all important insights into the status of the business cycle. I will again emphasize that I am cautious, but growing somewhat optimistic if earnings can grow more significantly and unemployment move lower in a meaningful way.

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart — courtesy of JP Morgan Private Bank — is a history of stock markets in every election year since 1984. As we can see in the chart, election years typically have somewhat greater volatility than in normal years, however, we usually see a rally into the end of the year, with a couple of notable exceptions, but those were also years when recessionary dynamics pervade.

While it is true that every time is different, it is helpful to anchor our expectations in history.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

Earnings, earnings, earnings, earnings, earnings! With the Fed having given a clearer path for rates, investors are watching earnings very closely. It appears that earnings are only expected to grow about 3.5% — which is lower than we thought before earnings season began. As I mentioned last week, earnings growth is concentrated in one or two sectors (technology and communication services), which belies some underlying weakness in the economic growth story.

This week we see data on durable goods orders and we enter the thick of earnings season, with major companies like General Electric, Verizon, 3M, Boeing, Tesla, IBM, and many others reporting. As I have said before, for this market rally to continue, we really need to see meaningful earnings growth across the board (10% to 15% growth).

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I am growing a bit more optimistic. There are still underlying weaknesses in the economy — the yield curve remains inverted and unemployment levels have moved in a recessionary way. However, if earnings growth can catch on and unemployment levels stabalize, I may shift my outlook from cautious to optimistic.

Chart of the Week

Private Inventories are a key component of the economy. When businesses are not optimistic, they tend to stop ordering excess inventory, and sell down existing stock. That said, this figure is also one of the components of GDP itself, so it is much more of a coincident indicator. As you can see, after contracting last year, inventories have begun to climb again this year.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

All eyes are on earnings this week. This week the focus is on financials, including Schwab, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Overall, the financial sector is expected to not grow earnings this quarter at all — perhaps an indication that things are not so rosey.

I expect overall earnings to grow around 6% for this quarter which is reasonable but below the long-term average. As I have mentioned before several times, stock valuations are very stretched. For investors to simply break even at current levels, we would need to see 23% earnings growth every year for the next 10 years. Historically, such excessive expectations have ended with prices coming down precipitously.

This week is light on data (other than earnings), but we do get a sense of retail sales and industrial production. Last week, the big news was inflation which came in a few ticks higher than expected. Afterwhich investors questioned whether the Fed would cut rates at the pace they originally expected.

Despite JPMorgan’s call that the US economy has achieved a “soft landing,” I am not so optimistic. There are still several big problems lurking just under the surface that give me pause (commercial real estate being the biggest one). I continue to recommend caution, though I admit that such caution has not been rewarded this year.

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart from FactSet shows the large gap in earnings growth across the various sectors. Technology is the largest contributer to the overall market’s earnings growth, but if we removed Nvidia, Technology earnings growth is more in the 8% range. The point is, this is not a broad-based growth story — earnings are being driven by just a few companies in a few sectors. In a more typical growth cycle, we would expect see earnings growth more across the board.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

Last week was a big data week, but it was Job numbers that took center stage, with a quarter million jobs created last month. Expectations were more in the 140,000 range, so this was a big surprise. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Of course, rather than simply take the good news, investors are viewing these figures through the lens of “how does the Fed react to this”? Bond rates adjusted quickly higher, and the assumption is now that the Fed will cut rates slower than originally planned.

We also had services figures come in better than expected, showing expansion, but factory orders were negative.

With the close of the third quarter, investors will now be turning their attention to earnings with PepsiCo kicking off this week. With the economic data now showing mixed signals, any “soft landing” will need to be confirmed by corproate earnings. Without solid growth there, the all-clear signal can’t really be rung.

All-in-all I am still cautious, but last week’s data was a good sign. Job creation is strong, and the expansion of the services sector is a positive. Of course, valuations are still stretched (a topic we covered last week), but if we get strong earnings growth, I might start to ease back into a more optimistic view of the next 12 months. Stay tuned — the next few weeks will be important!

Chart of the Week

With inflation coming down and strong employment figures, we have seen a slow but steady climb in our “Is Life Getting Better” index. The rise has been slower than pre-Covid years, but has been substantial nonetheless.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.