Our Thinking

What I Care About This Week | 2025 Dec 1

The data is still very ambiguous with corporate earnings coming in strong while the underlying economic data deteriorates. The Fed has a hard decision to make, and a closer look at US stock valuations.

What I Care About This Week | 2025 Nov 10

Earnings have been good, but investors are otherwise flying blind with the government shutdown offering no data; there are hints that the employment picture is deteriorating; and a closer look at the valuations of the “Mag 7” companies.

When are investment losses too much to recover from?

Traditional investing says to “buy and hold forever”, but that advice takes no account of investor goals, specifically time horizons. Goals-based investing gives us some quantitative tools for evaluating the damage done by investment losses and, consequently, the value of paying for portfolio hedges. In this article, we use python to model a framework for thinking about these problems when investors have goals to achieve.

What I Care About This Week | 22 Sep 2025

The Fed cuts rates, as expected, and signals increased risk in labor markets. Crypto took a hit over the weekend, economic data is still weak, and a new indicator for the dashboard.

What I Care About This Week | 2025 July 28

Lots of data this week including the Fed meeting, the US and EU reach a trade deal with significant impacts for two industries, and a closer look at how companies are reacting to tariffs.

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