Tag: Market Update

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The 1970s are back in style! (Well, the economics are, at least).

The data this past week has pretty much confirmed what we’ve suspected for some time: higher inflation and slow growth are the new norm. This is called stagflation, and it hasn’t been a problem since the 1970s.

The Fed’s meeting last week really drove the point home: a unanimous decision to raise rates, with Fed chairman Warsh suggesting that inflation won’t be under control until 2029, AND 16 of the 18 govenors expecting at least one more rate hike by the end of the year.

Bottom line: the Fed is worried about inflation and rates are marching higher.

Here’s what this means for your investments (also see our Chart of the Week). Higher rates means stocks get less expensive, and this hits the most expensive names the hardest. Investors are much less patient with no return, and companies need to show profit growth. In other words: this is a stock-picker’s market.

Commodities usually do better in a higher inflation environment, assuming a recession doesn’t materialize.

Long-term bonds tend to perform poorly in a rising rate environment.

Overall, this is the time to spend time re-tooling your portfolio for a different environment than what we have seen since 2012. For more, check out our Chart of the Week.

Chart of the Week

Luckily, we don’t have to fly blind in our expectations of where to place capital in a stagflationary environment. Looking back at the returns of various asset classes from 1973 – 1982, we can estimate which investments might outperform others. To be clear, I do not expect to see the extreme environment on ’73 – ’82, so the numbers themselves are probably not too helpful, it is the ranking that is important here.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The big story is the blowout August jobs numbers posted Friday — 162,000 jobs created, with upward revisions to the previous two months. All of this paints a much better picture of the labor market than what we originally saw through the summer.

Of course, markets reacted somewhat negatively as they view this as cover for the Fed to hike interest rates. We get a fuller picture of that on Thursday and Friday when inflation figures post.

The AI trade also got some tailwinds after Nvidia’s earnings report. The worry that the AI compute build-out was slowing down was tempered by Nvidia’s now $2-trillion backlog of orders. That pushed AI companies back up, though we are still seeing a difference in performance between companies that are making money and those that are not.

Overall, stagflation is still our baseline scenario, despite the strong job creation numbers we just saw. With the Hormuz premium in oil prices for the forseeable future, higher prices may be much stickier than they otherwise might be. Energy is an input into every other industry, and it gets hard to just absorb that cost for a long time. Even so, markets are likely to continue higher so long as corporate earnings remain strong. Investors have many different risks to manage right now!

Chart of the Week

Rather than the underlying data, markets have largely been interpreting economic releases through the lens of “what’s the Fed gonna do next?” With inflation cooling somewhat this year, odds the Fed will raise rates has still increased. That is part of what makes Friday so important — a strong or weak inflation number could push the Fed in either direction.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

Inflation, jobs, and gold — those are the big stories we’re following.

Inflation continues to remain sticky. With no resolution on the Iran conflict in sight, it appears that above-average oil will remain for the forseeable future. Higher energy costs threaten to derail interest rate cuts, despite the jobs figures, which have come in weaker than expected.

Speaking of jobs: hiring in the US has slowed to a crawl, and we have begun to see people leaving the workforce rather than finding jobs. That results in a lower headline unemployment rate, but that is still bad news. This week’s chart illustrates the point — since February 2026, payroll growth has gone from up six figures a month to now down 20,000, all while the labor-force participation rate steadily declined. Overall, not a good picture.

Gold is another big story. After declining sharply this year, gold has begun to rally back strongly over the past few weeks.

All of this, unfortunately, brings our stagflation thesis back, front-and-center. Without a real resolution to higher energy prices and re-growth in payroll data, our baseline case is stagflation. That said, 1980s-style stagflation seems unlikely. Rather, we are more likely in a muddle-through environment. Lots of volatility, but not likely 1980s inflation and not likely a 2008-style recession.

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart illustrates the challenges facing the jobs market. Monthly payrolls have begun to contract, and the number of people participating in the labor force has declined. There are mitigating factors here, to be fair. With immigration at basically 0, fewer jobs can be created to keep pace with population growth. Even so, job creation is the engine of economic growth. We are unlikely to see growth without it for very long.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

I mentioned last week that it may be the most important week of the quarter, and it did not dissappoint. After the Fed meeting and inflation data, we now see stagflation as our baseline scenario. It went away for a while, but the word is back, and it is something we need to watch closely (see this week’s chart). GDP growth has slowed to 1.5% while GDP price index has increased to 6.3% — higher prices, lower growth — that is the definition of stagflation.

Markets whipsawed a bit last week in response to big tech names. This is not yet a panic, but investors are now punishing companies that are spend-only on AI, they want to see earnings. In that vein, we see earnings from chip-makers this week, and that will be an important data point. Namely, is the chip shortage still a thing, or is the market saturated?

All-in-all, the data from last week has increased the likelihood of downside in the coming year. Worse yet, in a stagflationary scenario, bonds and stocks tend to lose value together. We highly recommend adjusting portfolios to update this potential reality.

Chart of the Week

In this week’s chart, we see the progression of the data from “soft landing” in 2024 toward “stagflation” in the latest data. What we’d expect to see from unemployment is a slow grind higher, not a normal recessionary spike. So, that will be the data we’ll be eyeing this week.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

This is the most consequential week of this quarter. The Fed will announce rates on Wednesday, four of the “Mag 7” report earnings within two days of each other, we get a read on inflation, and Iranian (de-)escalation continues to be on watch! Whew, hold on for a bumpy week!

Is the economy growing or not? That is the core question we are asking ourselves. Right now, it is almost a toss-up between seeing a recession and seeing the economy continue to push higher. Corporate earnings have, so far, driven markets higher, and offered strong evidence of a growing economy. But, investors are getting impatient with the massive AI investment while seeing no return on that investment.

The Fed meeting will be a key indicator this week. The Fed hiking rates into a softening labor market is the most likely setup for a recession. We will be listening closely to the tone Walsh strikes when discussing the data and the path of future rates.

All-in-all, we are not recommending a bold call. Rather, we are in a wait-and-see mode. There are risks, but those risks have yet to fully materialize. In the meantime, strong corporate earnings are likely to drive the market still higher. In fact, FactSet now expects earnings to be in the high 30% growth range! That would be the highest growth in earnings in over five years.

Chart of the Week

One concerning chart we have been watching for a time is the ratio of Copper/Gold, and how it moves with bond yields. So, while bond yields have been marching higher for all of this year, normally implying economic growth, the metals market is not matching that movement. This tells me that the move in bond yields is largely driven by inflation fears, rather than forecasts of economic growth.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The on-again/off-again deal with Iran is, well, off again. As expected, this has become the dominant driver in markets across all asset classes. Of course oil is the primary mover, but since energy in an input into all sectors of the economy, we are seeing worries of inflation come back to life, adding to equity and bond market skittishness.

Equity investors are again questioning the AI trade, punishing chip makers this past week. This mainly came from Meta announcing their intent to sell their excess compute capacity for other AI model-makers. This is the first indication that total chip supply may have caught up with demand — if a major model-maker has more compute than it needs, then maybe the “perpetual scarcity” narrative is unwinding?

The resurgence in oil price, and the open-endedness of the Iranian conflict, has pushed our probability of stagflation a bit higher along with the policy-error recession. Bottom line, we see about a 48% chance of a bad economic outcome over the next 12 months, and about a 52% chance of a “growth as usual” outcome. We do see some important data on employment this week, and we will be watching that closely.

Overall, we are positive on the economy. We are watching closely for signs of weakness, but those signs are muted at the moment. Earnings are very strong, with the S&P 500 expected to deliver 25% earnings growth over this time last year! When earnings start to falter, that is when investors should begin to worry.

Chart of the Week

WTI crude oil is about the best proxy for how investors feel the Iranian conflict is going as this week’s chart demonstrates. We can clearly see prices following the events, and reflecting a “wartime premium” over the $70/barrel prices seen in February.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

Stagflation is the word of the month… Growth has slowed (GDP was revised down to 1.6% from 2.0%), and inflation is again pushing above 3%. Consumers are responding by beginning to cut back. This week, investors get a closer look at whether employment is holding or beginning to slip. So far, the “low hire/low fire” dynamic has kept unemployment steady, but the “no hire/low fire” dynamic is what I am worried about.

In short, everyone is watching the employment figures later this week.

That said, corporate earnings just had a blow-out quarter, logging 28% growth over this time last year. This is, unfortunately, part of the set-up for the stagflation scenario. The key indicator to see here is consumer confidence. Typically, revenues are led by consumer confidence form 2 – 3 quarters ago. With the massive drop we’ve seen recently, we should be on the lookout for consumers cutting back in the coming 6 to 9 months.

Overall, I am suggesting that investors remain invested, but with clear risk controls going forward. Understanding which risks will derail your goals is the key, then take steps to mitigate those risks. We should be on the lookout, though, for a storm sometime near the end of the year.

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart demonstrates the classic stagflationary set up: GDP growth is slowing down (blue bars) while inflation pressures are increasing (orange line). Even factoring out energy costs, inflationary pressures are still building (dotted line). This is a narrative we need to watch closely.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

So inflation is back.

Inflation posted hotter than expected in both the consumer and producer price indices. Hope of the Fed cutting rates any time soon is pretty much dead. In fact, investors now expect higher rates going forward, not lower.

Higher inflation expectations have pushed bond yields higher, and many have broken through important technical barriers. Friday’s close on the 30-year US Treasury yield is the highest closing level since June 2007 — this may indicate that higher yields are to come as markets reset expectations completely.

On Wednesday, we see earnings from Nvidia and Walmart, both important to keep the market upside narrative alive. Higher bond yields puts downward pressure on stocks, and the rally may be tested this week. Though, with earnings in the 27%+ range, I expect downswings will have a floor under them.

Portfolio Implications

Fixed Income. Long US treasuries, high-quality corproate bonds, and even tax-free municipals are starting to look attractive at these levels, though we may suggest waiting to enter until the market finds a new equilibrium.

Equities. While earnings are good, there are indications that this market is fragile to shocks. Nvidia missing earnings or the Fed minutes revealing a more hawkish FOMC may subject the market to a short-term downdraft.

Alternatives. The case for alternatives, like non-traded oil and gas interests is benefiting from higher energy prices. However, sustained bond yields above 5% would compress equity multiples and put downward pressure on private equity and venture capital. Private credit and real estate will also suffer as refinance rates are considerably worse.

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart comes to us from the Federal Reserve’s FRED database, and it shows the 30-year US Treasury yield from 2007 to today. The 5% yield mark is significant for two reasons. First, it marks the first time in 20-years that we have seen this level, so it is a significant shift in the regime we’ve had from then to now. Second, the period from the 1980s to 2020 was a period of almost-entirely declining interest rates. 1% in 2020 may represent the very bottom of that multi-generational trend. With today’s yields, we may be in a new trend of generally-upward interest rates. Or, at least, a sideways market for yields. Either way, it represents a firm break with the past.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

Happy Star Wars Day!

Corporate earnings are, quite frankly, fantastic. It appears that earnings grew around 27% over this time last year, which is double what was expected from the analysts that I follow! This has given markets a boost, both psychologically and quantitatively.

The concerns in private credit — a serious risk few are talking about — has not gotten better. Bloomberg reported that borrowers who made payments with borrowed money has increased to 11% in the last quarter. Some Federal Reserve governors have commented on the risks lurking in private credit, but they have allayed fears that this could lead to a 2008-style contagion.

Overall, I am growing optimistic. Corporate earnings are good, and guidance has been positive. Frustratingly, however, my recession signals are still flashing red. My overall advice is to be invested, but to understand what downsides might be unrecoverable for your plan. We may be in a scenario where the recession trigger sneaks up on us and everything happens all at once. Risk controls, in this environment, make a lot of sense.

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart comes to us from Fathom Consulting and shows the valuation of various stock markets around the world. As is pretty clear from the chart, the US market is the most expensive of the developed economies. This may be a fear trade, but history suggests that opportunities may be hiding in less expensive places, like the European Union.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

After some brief volatility, investors have largely shrugged off the Iran war. I am concerned about the consequences for oil & gas, though the US will be considerably less affected than the European Union, China, and India, who rely heavily on energy from the region.

Earnings are the big story for investors right now. Companies are growing earnings by about 15% over this time last year, and those strong earnings are supporting higher prices. As I have said before, so long as companies continue to grow earnings, we should see markets move higher.

I am concerned about the breakdown of private credit, however. It has largely moved from the headlines, but there is trouble brewing in these off-market funds, and that trouble has the hallmarks of contagion. In addition, corporate layoffs have begun to reach alarming levels. There have been over 100,000 announced layoffs in technology alone!

Overall, I see storm clouds forming, but there is probably still some time before the rain drops start to fall. That said, we need to keep a close eye on the risks hiding beneath the market’s all-time highs, especially in private credit.

Chart of the Week

This week’s “chart” comes to us courtesy of Reuters, and it demonstrates the strategic challenge of the conflict around Iran. Given their long coastline, Iran can exert considerable control over the the Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20% of the world’s oil flows.

There are pipelines to move oil to a seperate port, but that capacity is very limited and it will take many years to build new pipelines. Until then, energy flows will be largely determined by the whim of the Iranian regime.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.