Category: Uncategorized

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The Summary

• And all of a sudden, banks are in trouble. After the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, this week saw trouble in other regional banks, but also at one of the worlds largest: Credit Suisse. Regulators and central bankers have worked to hold off panic and major failures in the banking system, with the FDIC and Federal Reserve offering unlimited deposit insurance (holding off a bank run) and the Swiss authorities offering an unlimited line of credit to Credit Suisse.
  
  
• This week is Fed week! Markets have priced in a 60% chance of a 0.25% rate hike and a 40% chance of no hike at all, which is a massive change from a week and a half ago. Based on the Fed’s own commentary a 0.25% hike is possible, but a 0.50% hike is certainly on the table. Inflation figures came in last week at 6%, still much higher than Fed officials would be happy with. Retail sales also came in last week with 0.4% fewer sales than last month.
  
  
• Things break slowly, and then all at once (to bend Hemingway’s phrase a bit). While it is still too early to tell if this is the moment, there does appear to be fissures forming in financial markets, even if not yet in the real economy. Though contagion risk has been mitigated by authorities, banks that are in survival mode are not expanding credit to customers, but are likely contracting it. Credit contraction is a main cause of recessions. The macro economic data is not yet showing this, but that does take time to appear. In my view, caution is warranted here.
  
  

The Details

So a recession might be coming… what’s the plan?

The first thing you have to do is assess what risks you can afford to take. There are, fundamentally, two types of risks for goals-based investors.

The first type of risk is downside risk — we are all familiar with that. Downside risk is the risk that you are invested and markets fall, then fail to recover in time for you to achieve your goal.

The second type of risk is upside risk. Upside risk is the risk that you are not invested and markets rise, leaving you without the benefit of those gains, now making it less likely to achieve your goal.

Balancing the two is a quantitative question (meaning, there is some math for it), but the essence of it is this: as your time horizon shortens, downside risks tend to hurt you more than upside risks. With longer time horizons it is the opposite: upside risks hurt you more than downside risks.

Finding a balance between the two is a big part of why I spend so much time trying to understand the business cycle. In markets where downside risks loom large (like right now), it is especially important to take steps to mitigate those risks for accounts that carry short time horizons. That can be done in a variety of ways from building cash, to hedging, to shorting, and so on. How should it be done for you?

Your goals are a key input to answering all of these questions. And if these are answers you don’t have, let’s open a conversation.

Chart of the Week

Another signal of economic health is how many small businesses are planning big investments in the coming three to six months — these are called capital expenditures, or CAPEX for short. Because small businesses account for about 44% of economic activity in the United States, but do not have the same access to financial markets, they can be a canary in the coal mine of the economy.

Typically, before a recession, small business owners report planning fewer capital expenditures in their business in the coming 3 – 6 months. Rebounding after COVID, this indicator has turned negative, showing that fewer are now planning CAPEX. This is, to me, a negative signal, though this can trend downward for some time before a recession actually hits.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The Summary

• What a fast-moving weekend! On Friday, the FDIC put Silicon Valley Bank into receivership, which is the largest bank failure since 2008 (and the second largest in US history). On Sunday, New York Signature Bank was also shuddered by regulators. In an effort to mitigate the risks of contagion among regional banks (more on that in this week’s Details), the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury created a special vehicle to guarantee all deposits at these banks — even those above the $250,000 FDIC limits.
  
  
• The turmoil in the regional banking sector has pushed investors to completely re-think the Fed’s potential rate moves later this month. Pretty much overnight, investors shifted their expectations on rates from an almost-certain 0.50% hike to a 0.25% hike, or even the possibility of no hike at all. In short, investors believe the events of this past week were enough to make the Fed second-guess their current path of rate hikes.
  
  
• Despite the drama of the past week, I have still not gotten the “recession is almost here” signals. This week we see some important data, including inflation, retail sales, and industrial production, and all of that could easily push markets around. That said, risk of contagion in the financial system is not gone and there is little that could suck the life out of an economy faster (it reminds me of 2008). In short, this could be a watershed moment in this economic cycle, and I am watching everything very closely. My opinions here may change in an moment.
  
  
• In any event, the events of this week highlight the importance of diversified exposure to banks for people with significant cash holdings. Through our partner programs, we can help you get FDIC insurance for balances up to $25 million.* If you find yourself concerned about recent events, let’s talk through what is worrying you and we can find a solution that fits your situation.
  

The Details

This week we saw an old fashioned bank run end the life of two major US banks. How does this happen? What are the risks it spreads?

Banks, of course, take in customer deposits and then use most of that cash to make loans and buy securities. There are strict limits on what banks are allowed to invest in, but for every $1 in customer deposits a bank will only have around $0.14 in actual cash. The rest will be invested in loans, US Treasury bonds, mortgage-backed securities, etc.

Most of the time, this is perfectly okay because only a few people are withdrawing money on any given day. If more withdrawals than usual are needed the bank can simply sell some of their more liquid investments (such as US Treasuries).

Recently, however, US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities have lost considerable value relative to a few years ago. For a bank needing to raise cash to meet withdrawals, like Silicon Valley Bank, the losses on those investments became so much that they needed more capital to remain compliant.

When word got out that SVB needed to raise capital to remain solvent, the tight-knight startup community rapidly withdrew their cash, and that created the need for more capital which the bank could not fulfill. Thus, the rapid demand withdrawals, combined with the losses on their investments, led SVB to end Friday almost a billion dollars short of cash.

Normally, this means the FDIC steps in and freezes all deposits over the insured threshold. They would then spend the next few months selling the assets of the bank (the loan portfolio, the remaining investments, etc), in an attempt to raise the cash to make depositors whole. That, however, leaves depositors without access to their cash during that time, and for a business needing to make payroll, that time is destructive.

However, over the weekend, the Federal Reserve partnered with the US Treasury to create a special fund that will guarantee all deposits at these banks and that is very likely to stem the tide of panic, at least for the moment. More than anything, the backstop of the Federal Government gives depositors enough confidence to keep their cash in place, ending the bank run.

Yet this is a highly fluid situation, with news breaking hourly, and there are probably some more dominoes to fall. Investors (and business-owners) would do well to have some conversations with people they trust and do some risk management exercises.

Chart of the Week

Of all the outcomes of this weekend, the most directly impactful to investors has been the complete turnaround in expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike at their March 22nd meeting. At the end of last week, investors saw a 0.50% rate hike as a near certainty. Now, however, investors see a 0.25% rate hike as most likely, with no rate hike as also a real possibility. That hasn’t been the case in a very long time, and sets up markets for some dramatic news when the rate announcement finally does occur.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

*Program offered through a third-party technology and custody platform. Directional Advisors is only an investment advisor and does not custody assets nor itself offer financial guarantees of any kind. Investments in securities are not FDIC insured and may lose value.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The Summary

• It is employment week! This week we see data on job openings, unemployment, consumer credit, and Fed chair Powell testifies before congress. Investors will be watching unemployment figures to see if the Fed’s rate hikes are being felt among workers. To date, job growth and employment has remained very strong, and all of this will feed into the market’s pricing of future rate hike and recession expectations.
  

• Last week, we saw manufacturing data and it continues to show contraction. This is one of the areas signaling weakness in the economy, though despite getting many “things are slowing down” signals, I have not yet gotten “the recession is here” signals. Admittedly, however, this is a very difficult environment to get a read on, and the Fed’s ongoing influence in the market distorts many of our traditional recessionary signals.
  
  
• I continue to be in a cautious wait-and-see mode. With corporate earnings in contraction, the last two dominoes to fall are employment and the Federal Reserve acting like a recession is imminent (they tend to cut rates just before a recession hits). This means that investors may do well to build up some cash and begin taking off riskier trades (like crypto, higher-risk bonds/stocks, etc), but making a big move (like selling everything) does not seem advisable. Though, as always, your goals will determine what risks you can afford to take.
  

The Details

People have told me before that they do not invest in the stock market because it is just a gamble. Is it? And what is the difference between gambling and investing, anyway?

I think some of this misunderstanding is because markets do seem random in their day-to-day pricing. Throw money in the mix (and that you could lose it), and suddenly we have what might look like gambling. In short: money + randomness = gambling.

Investing does involve some randomness, that is true. And, of course, investing involves money. But investing involves another very important thing: time.

Gambling is a very short-term affair: a few hours, a week, maybe a month. Investing, by contrast, is a long-term undertaking — years, rather than hours or days. The addition of a time horizon also serves to remove much (but not all) of the randomness in market prices. For example, since 1950, the S&P 500 had a 53% chance of being up on any given day, but in any given decade the probability of profit was 77% (and that is before dividends — dividends increase your odds of winning over longer periods of time).

Investing is about putting the odds of profit in your favor, whereas the odds for profit are against you when gambling. So, fundamentally, that is how I see the difference, and why I do not see investing and gambling as the same thing.

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart looks at the damage done by inflation and unemployment. While workers have seen their wages rise they have not risen nearly as fast as inflation, which is the first time since 2011-2012 that has happened. Another way to think of this: since the height of the pandemic aid programs in 2020, the general population has lost about 17% of their standard of living. Of course, it doesn’t go away overnight, but it forces people to eat into savings or borrow money to maintain, and that is both painful and cannot last long. Not to mention, recovering that standard of living can take years. In 2011, it was not until about five years later — in 2016 — that the standard of living was increased for the average American.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The Summary

• Ouch. Last week, risk assets took a dive as investors reassessed the path of the Federal Reserve. Market expectations for peak interest rates keep moving higher and now stand around 5.5% (up from about 4.75% just a month ago). Earnings have also not helped stocks, with profits contracting about 5% over this time last year. A bright spot has been bonds. Higher yields has given investors somewhere to hide with short-term US Treasuries now earnings around 4.8%.
  
  
• This week is a fairly light data week: earnings season is pretty much done, and the main two data points investors will watch are the ISM Manufacturing PMI (a gauge of manufacturing health in the US), and consumer confidence. Manufacturing is expected to continue showing a contraction, while consumer confidence has kept its slump. So far, the fundamental economic data has been flashing warnings to investors. The economy continues to deteriorate, although employment and consumer spending remain stronger than expected.
  
  
• I continue to urge caution and patience. I do expect a recession in the US this year, though I do not see signals that it is imminent. There are numerous headwinds for risk assets (like stocks, high yield bonds, or even cryptocurrencies), but selling everything right now may also be the wrong approach. I am, at the moment, in wait-and-see mode.
  

The Details

I have a pet theory about real estate.

I remember scratching my head for many years, pre-2020, at the types of real estate deals that I saw getting done. In many cases, I saw office space and apartment complexes that were changing hands at valuations that make little to no sense.

Well, to be fair, the valuations kind of made sense if the interest rate for the debt on the property was below 3%. Those days are over.

Most institutional real estate is financed with a loan that carries a fixed rate for about eight years, then floats based on market interest rates. Which means, when that initial period of a fixed rate expires, many of those real estate valuations won’t make sense at all.

We may then see these sky-high valuations come back down to earth. And that is even before other pricing factors that have started to come into play (like an excess of housing supply that is putting downward pressure on rents, or how hybrid work has lowered demand for office space).

For that reason, I have been underweight real estate, generally, in the portfolios that I manage. I am skeptical of REITs, though I never rule anything out completely. My objective, however, is not to be on the sidelines here forever. I would very much like to step in as a cash buyer when valuations do fall — there are likely to be some good deals on offer!

But, as always, patience here is key.

Chart of the Week

As Monty Python used to say: “And now for something completely different…” This week’s chart shows the top-20 highest grossing films by year, over the past decade. Interestingly, only one since 2012 has been a romantic comedy! Our second chart illustrates how the 2000-2010 decade was a golden-age for the RomCom, but fewer have been made, and — with the exception of Crazy Rich Asians — they have made less and less of a rake over the last decade.

At any rate, the contrarian in me wonders: is the romantic comedy due for a comeback??

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The Summary

• Markets seem pretty bipolar these days. For the past few months, investors have latched on to “the Fed is almost done raising rates” narrative. That has led many assets higher (including stocks). That narrative is shifting yet again, however, as investors are reassessing the path of the Federal Reserve (trust me, I am as tired of talking about the Fed as you are of hearing about it). Anyway, stocks are feeling a bit “toppy” at these levels, and a correction seems likely, especially in light of the Fed’s continued aggressiveness.
  
  
• Earnings season is coming to a close, with about 80% of the S&P 500 having reported. It has been pretty disappointing, and it appears that companies have made about 5% less money than this time last year. This, coupled with the deteriorating fundamental economic data, urge caution. For investors with shorter time horizons, this is the time to batten down the hatches. In my view, there are more pressures downward than upward right now.
  
  
• This week we get data on the global economy, and we get the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCEs). Investors are watching closely for PCEs to continue their downward trend (+5.0% was last month’s print). A flatlining here would be troublesome for markets. We also get data on personal incomes, and with WalMart and Home Depot reporting earnings, we also get some insight into the health of consumers.

The Details

Investing ethically is something talked about a lot these days, but what does it really mean? In my recent book, I give an example that illustrates the key point of ethical investing:

Imagine a company that makes 65% returns a year for its shareholders. Not only are these returns doable, but in your estimation 65%/year is a conservative estimate. The catch? This company employs slave labor in their manufacturing process (overseas, of course).

Clearly, no one would invest in this company! Given an entire marketplace of investors who turn down so lucrative an offer, there is, therefore, no investment return that justifies the enslavement of other humans.

Which illustrates an important point about investing ethically: we all do it, at least on some level. We all have a set of ethics which we would not violate, no matter the potential return.

Yet beyond some common items (which are mostly enshrined in law codes, anyway), we are all a little different in what exactly matters to each of us individually. Some investors prefer not to invest in oil & gas companies, others would prefer not to invest in gambling companies, still others would prefer to take an active role in their proxy voting, and some investors are fine with what the law says on a given topic.

And here is the key point: Investing ethically is just as individualized as everything else about us. Which means there is no one-size-fits-all solution. Your ethics matter. Imputing your ethics into your investments requires considerable portfolio customization, just like your other financial goals. What’s more, determining what you may be willing to give up to achieve those ethical objectives is yet another nuanced conversation that should be had.

In the end, this is a topic that requires care and conversation. And that is something we would love to discuss with you.

Chart of the Week

Finance can be rather heartless. We often talk about big-picture things such as inflation, Fed policy, interest rates, and so on. Yet, there are real human struggles underlying these figures. That is the subject of this week’s chart.

The “Misery Index” is a reflection of the that unemployment and inflation are the two leading causes of economic pain. In the chart below, we can see the Covid-induced spike, which was primarily driven by unemployment. Now, however, levels are being driven by inflation. Of course, both of these were not compounded, which is the danger in a recessionary environment (like the 1980s, when this index was at its highest levels).

It is good to remember that under all of these facts and figures, market swings, and economic data are reflections of actual human experiences.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The Summary

• This week we see more earnings, with AIG, Coca-Cola, Cisco, Deere (and several others), all reporting. In general, this has been a disappointing earnings season. With about 60% of S&P 500 companies having reported, it appears that, on average, companies have seen about 5% less profit than last year at this time. Of course, that is not evenly distributed across sectors, as our Chart of the Week demonstrates.
  
  
• Tomorrow we get the all-important inflation figure. At the moment, analysts expect prices to have increased about 5.5% over last year, which is certainly down from the peak but still much higher than the Fed’s 2% inflation target. A figure higher than 5.5% would easily move markets lower, while a figure less than 5.5% could move markets higher. We also see retail sales, industrial production (which is on my recession dashboard), producer prices, and housing starts. All of these are important pieces of the economic picture.
  
  
• The market’s recent rally off of its October bottom has been rather dramatic, and it does fuel a fear of missing out (often dubbed FOMO in financial news). As I read the data today, however, it appears to be driven by hopes of continued economic growth and a general shrugging-off of the very real recessionary dangers that lurk in this economy. This rally, therefore, has given investors the opportunity to lighten their risk load, though, as usual, the specifics of your goals will determine what risks are acceptable for you.
  

The Details

Everyone is talking about the Fed (including me). What’s the big deal?

The Federal Reserve was established by Congress in 1913 in order to centralize control of the nation’s monetary system — banks, currency, interest rates, etc. Congress outsourced the management of monetary policy to the Fed with a mandate to maximize employment and price stability (often called the dual mandate).

In order to accomplish those objectives, the Federal Reserve has a few knobs it can turn.

First, and most famously, the Fed can adjust the amount of interest it pays banks for cash on deposit. Since the Fed is the safest investment a bank can make, anyone who wishes to borrow money must compete with the Fed’s rate of interest. Uncle Joe, then, will have to pay a higher rate than the Fed if he wants to borrow money to buy a car (because Uncle Joe is considerably less reliable than the Fed).

Second, the Federal Reserve can create and destroy US dollars. The mechanisms involved here are not straightforward, but, essentially, they print money and use the US Treasury and financial markets to put those dollars into circulation. They can also remove dollars from circulation.

Finally, and considerably less well-known, the Federal Reserve, through its oversight and regulation of the banking system, can adjust the amount of credit on offer in the economy.

Each of these “knobs” can be dialed up and down in order to achieve their mandate of low inflation (a.k.a. price stability) and full employment. However, full employment and price stability are traditionally seen as competing with one another: in order to lower inflation, the Fed must lower employment, and vice versa.

In the end, these tools have effects on both the real economy and financial markets — and those effects are not always aligned. Creating dollars and lowering interest rates has kept employment high, but also pushed asset prices higher, overwhelmingly benefitting the wealthiest. When attempting to deal with inflation, the Fed pulls back those dollars and increases interest rates, sending asset prices lower, but also tending to increase unemployment.

With so much power over both the economy and financial markets, the Fed has become the central player in market analysis and forecasting. So, regrettably, we have to discuss the Fed much more than usual these days.

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart comes to us from FactSet and shows the earnings growth of S&P 500 sectors relative to what their expectations were at the end of Q4 2022. Energy has performed the best while Materials and Communications Services performed the worst (which was expected at the end of last year). Ultimately, it appears that large US companies will report a decline in earnings of about 5% over this time last year.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The Summary

• Happy New Year! 2022 was a difficult one in markets, to be sure. Whether a recession actually formed in 2022 has yet to be announced, but there is no question that the economic data deteriorated considerably. Risky assets closed the year down 20% or so, and the very risky corners of the market were either wiped out or closed down considerably worse (looking at you cryptocurrency!). More and more analysts are expecting a significant recession in 2023, as am I.
  
  
• Some important data posts this week. Unemployment will be the big item with a headline rate of 3.7% expected, but factory orders and the look at manufacturing will be important, as well. Investors have placed a 65% chance that the Fed will hike rates by only 0.25% at their meeting this month, which could set markets up for a downside surprise. Fed actions had the most influence on markets last year, and this year is likely to be similar.
  
  
• Caution is ever-more warranted, and now that yields have come back, holding cash-like assets makes more sense. I see a recession as likely this year, and investors with goals to achieve should weigh what risks are appropriate given their time horizon. Having a recession playbook seems sensible in this environment, and if you don’t have that, let’s talk it through.
  
  

The Details

I see a recession as likely this year.

In the end, this forecast is driven by the underlying economic data. No matter how you slice it, the economic data indicates an economy that has slowed considerably. Manufacturing, services, consumer spending, even many of the classic recession indicators, are all flashing yellow and red. Not to mention, the Fed is still restricting monetary policy and that is likely to push markets down even further.

Of course, it is notoriously difficult to predict exactly when the recession will hit. Even so, taking precautions now might make some sense.

But how should investors prepare? The trouble with the question is that the answer genuinely depends on your situation. For investors with a decade or more until their goal, staying invested and taking the lumps may well be the most appropriate answer. For investors who are a few years from their goals, building up cash and getting defensive may be the better option.

In any case, this is a topic you should be addressing now. Once the storm is here, it is much more difficult to prepare—or repair.

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart is a look at the index of leading economic indicators. As this chart shows, this index tends to peak and then begin falling ahead of recessions. It can be some time before the actual recession hits, however. As you can see, a year to 18 months is not uncommon. In February 2022, this index peaked, and has been falling ever since. This is one of the several recessionary indicators we are getting.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The Summary

• The Bottom Line. My outlook on the US economy has shifted significantly over the past couple of weeks. A recession, while not imminent, does appear to be forming. Of course, pre-recessionary markets can still deliver solid returns, but I am watching the fundamental economic data closely, and this week we get a lot of it!
  
  
• We get several important data points this week. Consumer confidence, job openings, headline unemployment, personal consumption expenditures, factory orders, and PMI all post this week. I am watching very closely for signs of a recession. An uptick in headline unemployment and a downtick in PMI and factory orders would confirm my suspicions that the economy is weakening, but we need to wait and see what the data says.
  
  
• Protests in China’s largest manufacturing hubs have sparked concerns among investors that supply chains may again be disrupted. Speaking of supply chains, there is growing worry that the largest railroad unions will strike, and the union representing all dockworkers on the west coast has yet to agree to a contract with ports. All three of these represent critical infrastructure for the movement of goods, and a failure at any point would significantly slow an already-sputtering US economy.

The Details

It is no secret that recessions cause damage to investment portfolios. There are, however, several considerations investors should keep in mind.

First, markets tend to price about six months ahead of the news. So, the drawdown in markets tends to begin around six months before the recession begins, and the recovery begins six months before the end of the recession. Understanding when a recession might begin or end is a critical component to managing risk.

Second, your goals—not just the overall market environment—should inform the risks you can take in your portfolio. There are drawdowns, for example, which are too great to recover from, and understanding the limits of your portfolio is a critical element to managing your risk (a topic I address in my latest book).

Finally, recessions do not treat all investment types equally. Bonds, gold, and even small-cap stocks tend to outperform other sectors through recessions (though the cause of the recession is an important component in that calculation). There are places to make money, even when things start to look dire.

If you don’t have a playbook for the next recession, now would be the time to begin discussing one. Let’s open a conversation.

Chart of the Week

Another indicator on my recession dashboard is the Purchasing Manufacturer’s Index (or PMI), which is a gauge of the health of manufacturing, and in this indicator anything over 50 is expansion, anything under 50 is contraction. It can be a bit noisy, so it must be viewed in the context of other indicators, however, figures at or below 50 tend to create amenable conditions for a recession.

This week, we get the latest view of PMI, and a post below 50 would make this another a warning sign.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The Summary

• The Bottom Line. Last week’s GDP print was encouraging, and may have struck the right balance: economic growth, but with flagging consumer and business spending. The Fed meets this week, and all ears are listening for whether they plan to adjust the path of interest rate hikes. If we get some dovish commentary (which is my expectation), we could then expect to see a market rally. Overall, my view is cautious, but not pessimistic. There are some buying opportunities in this market, in my view, but consumer spending will be a key variable to watch.
  
  
• In addition to being Fed week, investors get lots of data. We see data on manufacturing, job openings, the unemployment rate, productivity, and consumer credit. Any of this data could move markets, but it will be the Fed meeting that will dominate both the news and market gyrations.
  
  
• Grains and foodstuffs are back in the news as Russia has pulled out of a pact to continue grain exports citing danger to merchant shipping. This in addition to rising energy prices, globally. In addition to the humanitarian concerns, food and energy are basic inputs into economies. With higher energy and food costs, economic growth is expected to slow in addition to the upward pressure this puts on already-high inflation figures.
  
  

The Details

This week we’re going to discuss a pet peeve of mine.

It is not uncommon to see charts like the one below both online and in presentations. The narrative usually runs something like this: markets have grown exponentially, and, over time, long-term investors are rewarded by simply staying invested. So, the conclusion runs, you should just stay invested!

What irks me about this narrative is that it is both true and not true.

It is true in the factual sense: yes, over a 60-year period, markets have tended to deliver exponential returns (see chart below), and there is a reasonable basis to believe the next 60-years will look similarly.

It is untrue in the sense that almost no one has a 60-year time horizon!

Real people who have real goals to achieve will become short-term investors at some point, which, unfortunately, makes all of us market timers. It is not enough to simply say “don’t worry, it’ll come back!” Of course markets will come back, but that isn’t the relevant concern. Whether markets recover in time for you to accomplish your goals is the relevant concern.

Proper investment and risk management must begin with an understanding of your goals. For some objectives, you may have a 30-year time horizon, while you may have a 3-year time horizon for others. Managing risk looks entirely different in each of those accounts.

Chart of the Week

Last week’s GDP release was both encouraging and discouraging.

Headline GDP growth was better than expected at 2.6%. However, private investment continued to contract and consumer spending, though still positive, was less than expected. In short, exports boosted GDP growth much more than normal, but that is unlikely to continue much longer.

The key variables to watch, in my view, are consumer spending (personal consumption, in the chart below) and private investment. If we see both of those turning negative, a recession is likely not far behind.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The Summary

• The Bottom Line. It is my view that investors could see an upside surprise from the Fed next week. While markets have priced-in a 0.75% rate hike (which I think is likely), I believe the central bank is also likely to offer more dovish guidance on the path of future hikes. Furthermore, the economy has remained fairly robust to these hikes and earnings growth is likely to continue through the end of the year. I would caution investors against being overly pessimistic at this moment.
  
  
• About 20% of the S&P 500 has reported earnings for Q3, and it looks like companies will report around 3% profit growth over last year. Profit margins have started to show signs of pressure as companies are having more difficulty passing along cost increases from inflation. 3% profit growth is not great, but it is also not recessionary, and analysts continue to expect profit growth through year-end.
  
  
• This week is a pretty busy one for data. Global PMI’s posted today—offering some insight into the health of global manufacturing and services—both posted a slight decline. Consumer confidence and new home sales both post this week, as do durable goods orders, and an advance reading on Q3 GDP. We also get personal consumption expenditures, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Since the Fed meeting is next week, investors will be interpreting this data through the lens of Fed actions—which means that bad news is good news.
  
  

The Details

In my upcoming book, I recount a story from early in my career. The firm I was with rolled out some new financial planning software. Responding to my question, the trainer indicated that I could just put in long-run averages for my inflation assumptions, that “it really doesn’t matter too much anyway.” As I played around with the tool, however, I found that this was flat wrong—inflation assumptions mattered quite a lot!

Indeed, over the course of 20 years, the difference between a 3% inflation rate and a 5% inflation rate is the difference between achieving your goal and having only about two-thirds of the money you need! Said another way: you need almost 50% more money in the 5% inflationary scenario than in the 3% inflationary scenario.

The details of this are covered in my book, so I won’t recount them here. The point is, the damage done by high inflation cannot be understated. Furthermore, getting assumptions like this as right as possible when running financial planning scenarios is critically important. It is not enough to say “yeah, 3% is close enough.” Time and effort spent getting those expectations as right as possible is time and effort well spent!

So, while investors are rightfully reeling at the recent market selloff, inflation does considerably more damage, long-term, than do these short-term market downswings. Getting inflation back down is critical for investors with goals to achieve. And it is especially important for investors and practitioners who underestimated inflation over the coming decade.

Chart of the Week

There is a strange dichotomy in markets at the moment. On the one hand, talk of a recession is everywhere. On the other hand, analysts don’t see a recession in their earnings forecasts. European earnings estimates 1-year ahead of now indicate expectations for almost 5% earnings growth. Certainly not great, but also not recessionary. We see something similar in the US earnings growth outlook. Analysts expect mid to low single-digit earnings growth through next year. Again, not great, but not recessionary.

It can be easy to get caught up in a narrative. As investors, we should always let the data drive our narrative. At the moment, the data does not indicate that fear is warranted. Caution, certainly, but recessionary fears may be overblown—at least for the moment.

Of course, as the data changes, so do our minds.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.