Category: Uncategorized

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

More earnings! This week we get important profit figures from oil & gas majors, like Chevron and ExxonMobil. Energy earnings are expected to decline by 27%, the largest decline of any S&P 500 sector. Looking at the companies that have already reported — which is only about a third of total companies — and the companies that have yet to report, it looks like earnings will grow somewhere around 4% for this quarter. Again, happy for the growth, but it is well below the growth rate needed to sustain the market rally we’ve seen this year, in my view.

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It is worth mentioning election-year dynamics now that the election is coming in to view. Historically, in presidential election years, we see some volatility around election day followed by a rally into the end of the year, however actual annual returns are not usualy much different from any other year (2008 being the big exception, but there were other dynamics at work that year). See this week’s chart to see what election years since 1984 look like.

This week we see important data: third-quarter GDP growth, job openings, unemployment (expected to hold around 4.1%), and PMIs. All of this data could move markets, and are all important insights into the status of the business cycle. I will again emphasize that I am cautious, but growing somewhat optimistic if earnings can grow more significantly and unemployment move lower in a meaningful way.

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart — courtesy of JP Morgan Private Bank — is a history of stock markets in every election year since 1984. As we can see in the chart, election years typically have somewhat greater volatility than in normal years, however, we usually see a rally into the end of the year, with a couple of notable exceptions, but those were also years when recessionary dynamics pervade.

While it is true that every time is different, it is helpful to anchor our expectations in history.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

Earnings, earnings, earnings, earnings, earnings! With the Fed having given a clearer path for rates, investors are watching earnings very closely. It appears that earnings are only expected to grow about 3.5% — which is lower than we thought before earnings season began. As I mentioned last week, earnings growth is concentrated in one or two sectors (technology and communication services), which belies some underlying weakness in the economic growth story.

This week we see data on durable goods orders and we enter the thick of earnings season, with major companies like General Electric, Verizon, 3M, Boeing, Tesla, IBM, and many others reporting. As I have said before, for this market rally to continue, we really need to see meaningful earnings growth across the board (10% to 15% growth).

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I am growing a bit more optimistic. There are still underlying weaknesses in the economy — the yield curve remains inverted and unemployment levels have moved in a recessionary way. However, if earnings growth can catch on and unemployment levels stabalize, I may shift my outlook from cautious to optimistic.

Chart of the Week

Private Inventories are a key component of the economy. When businesses are not optimistic, they tend to stop ordering excess inventory, and sell down existing stock. That said, this figure is also one of the components of GDP itself, so it is much more of a coincident indicator. As you can see, after contracting last year, inventories have begun to climb again this year.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

All eyes are on earnings this week. This week the focus is on financials, including Schwab, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Overall, the financial sector is expected to not grow earnings this quarter at all — perhaps an indication that things are not so rosey.

I expect overall earnings to grow around 6% for this quarter which is reasonable but below the long-term average. As I have mentioned before several times, stock valuations are very stretched. For investors to simply break even at current levels, we would need to see 23% earnings growth every year for the next 10 years. Historically, such excessive expectations have ended with prices coming down precipitously.

This week is light on data (other than earnings), but we do get a sense of retail sales and industrial production. Last week, the big news was inflation which came in a few ticks higher than expected. Afterwhich investors questioned whether the Fed would cut rates at the pace they originally expected.

Despite JPMorgan’s call that the US economy has achieved a “soft landing,” I am not so optimistic. There are still several big problems lurking just under the surface that give me pause (commercial real estate being the biggest one). I continue to recommend caution, though I admit that such caution has not been rewarded this year.

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart from FactSet shows the large gap in earnings growth across the various sectors. Technology is the largest contributer to the overall market’s earnings growth, but if we removed Nvidia, Technology earnings growth is more in the 8% range. The point is, this is not a broad-based growth story — earnings are being driven by just a few companies in a few sectors. In a more typical growth cycle, we would expect see earnings growth more across the board.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

Last week was a big data week, but it was Job numbers that took center stage, with a quarter million jobs created last month. Expectations were more in the 140,000 range, so this was a big surprise. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Of course, rather than simply take the good news, investors are viewing these figures through the lens of “how does the Fed react to this”? Bond rates adjusted quickly higher, and the assumption is now that the Fed will cut rates slower than originally planned.

We also had services figures come in better than expected, showing expansion, but factory orders were negative.

With the close of the third quarter, investors will now be turning their attention to earnings with PepsiCo kicking off this week. With the economic data now showing mixed signals, any “soft landing” will need to be confirmed by corproate earnings. Without solid growth there, the all-clear signal can’t really be rung.

All-in-all I am still cautious, but last week’s data was a good sign. Job creation is strong, and the expansion of the services sector is a positive. Of course, valuations are still stretched (a topic we covered last week), but if we get strong earnings growth, I might start to ease back into a more optimistic view of the next 12 months. Stay tuned — the next few weeks will be important!

Chart of the Week

With inflation coming down and strong employment figures, we have seen a slow but steady climb in our “Is Life Getting Better” index. The rise has been slower than pre-Covid years, but has been substantial nonetheless.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The big news this week is China. On the heels of the real estate crisis and in an effort to improve their economic conditions, the Chinese central bank unleashed a wave of policies designed to stimulate the economy. These policies have, of course, also given steroids to a stock market that has languished for almost three years. In addition to cutting rates, the central bank has increased the ability of banks to lend, and has set aside some $114 billion to support share prices, and set up a swap program to support bank lending against stocks. All of this led to an historic 25% jump in share prices in China’s main stock index.

All that said, whether these stiumulus efforts will help support the ailing Chinese property sector and flagging economy remain to be seen. Indeed, Chinese investors who may have otherwise pursued real estate are pushing cash into stocks as a kind of last resort. It also does not appear that the stimulus will have much affect outside of China, so global investors are unlikely to see much benefit (though Australia does tend to move in sympathy with Chinese markets).

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In the US this week we see data on jobs openings (an important figure for the Federal Reserve), the headline unemployment rate for September, and we get a look at the health of US manufacturing. It is nice, for once, to not be talking about what the Fed might do next, and focus instead on economic data!

Chart of the Week

This week we get data on the health of the US manufacturing and services sectors. In both cases, weakness tends to coincide with a weak economy, though manufacturing is much noiser in that regard than services. Manufacturing is expected to post in contraction territory (anything below 50 in this chart is contraction, while above 50 is expansion), while services are expected to post right at breakeven. Weakness here indicates weakness in the broader economy and is yet one more data point that indicates a struggling US economy.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The Fed decided to go big, cutting rates by half of a percentage point. Markets largely expected this move, yet it was the tightrope chair Powell walked in the press conference that was particularly impressive. In the past, large cuts like this one tend to indicate considerable weakness in the economy, and are usually done in response to an emergency — the COVID recession in 2020, for example. Powell managed to sell a “nothing is wrong and we want to keep it that way” narrative.

If the market rally is any indication, investors agreed with Powell’s “mission accomplished on inflation, let’s keep the good times rolling” message from last week. I, however, am much more cautious on the economy. The underlying data remains weak. A bigger issue for me, however, is valuations. For investors to simply break even at current stock valuations, earnings would have to grow about 23% per year for the next 10 years. Just for reference: the long-term average growth rate of earnings is closer to 8.5% per year.

Overall, I am very cautious. Underlying economic data is weak and valuations are stretched. While it is possible the Federal Reserve achieved an historic feat (no recession), I find it more likely that the economy follows a similar path to its history: a recession is not far behind rate cuts, and slowing economic data typically indicates a recession.

Chart of the Week

I admit to bringing you a wonky chart this week. We are looking at US Stock valuations relative to history. As we can see, the valuation of the S&P 500 is at the higher-end of the scale, but not as high as it has been during, say, the late 1990s. At current levels, valuations are higher than 80% of the time since 1985. The bottom chart shows 1-year earnings growth through time, and we can see that 8.5% is about average for this period, while 20% only happens in about 1 in every 3 years.

In short, expecting earnings growth of 23% for the next 10 years is excessive by any measure.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

It now seems very settled that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates at their September 18 meeting, the only question is how much. Investors originally reacted positively but have since turned sour on the idea — in my view, this is because investors are realizing what has been historically true: the Fed cutting rates at this point is a recessionary signal, not a bullish one.

We saw quite a bit of economic data over the past week, and it is overall negative. Even the unemployment rate — which was celebrated last week for ticking down slightly — is signaling a slowdown. On that note, last years jobs figures were revised: the economy added 800,000 fewer jobs than we originally thought last year. That works out to about 67,000 fewer jobs per month, a significant number! This week, we see the all-important inflation data. Markets expect inflation to move down slightly from 2.9% to 2.6%. As usual, this figure could easily push markets around.

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Overall, I am urging caution. The last domino to fall will be the yield curve. As the Fed cuts rates, we expect short-term rates to move back below long-term rates, which is a strong “the recession is here” signal. It also appears that the AI rally has died almost completely: Nvidia, for example, has fallen 28% in just a couple of weeks. And, of course, we haven’t even discussed the volatility that typically happens around a presidential election.

For investors with goals to fund in the next few years, this is likely a time to be much more conservative than you would normally be. For investors with much more long-dated goals, this is much less of a concern, of course. If you would like to discuss how our view affects you and your goals, let’s chat.

Chart of the Week

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators is one of the recessionary signals we follow, although it is among the slowest to develop. The recession signal is when the index peaks and begins to fall. On the chart we have written the number of months between the peak in the index and the beginning of a subsequent recession. Previously, the longest gap between the peak and the recession was 21 months — March 2006 to December 2007. We are now beating that record with 30 months (and counting) since the peak of the index.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

After last week’s heavy selling, global markets have appeared to stabilize — albeit at lower prices than before. Many investors are left wondering whether the selling might continue or if that was just a short-lived downdraft. As I have repeated many times, the overall economic environment appears to favor lower prices rather than higher.

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Employment has worsened recently, and various economic indicators (consumer debt, PMI, the index of leading economic indicators, and the yield curve) all point to a pre-recessionary environment. That said, one bright spot is corporate earnings, which have finally begun to recover (Q2 earnings were up 10.8%, which is the highest in three years), and that may well pave the way forward for higher prices if the rest of the economy catches up.

This week, all eyes will be on Thursday’s inflation report, which is expected to come in around 3%. Figures much different than expectations could easily move markets around, as the Fed’s pace of rate cuts is all investors seem to care about right now.

In sum, this is not the time to be adding risk, in my view, but your goals will determine what exactly that means for you individually. As always, that is something we would be happy to talk through with you.

Chart of the Week

After recovering into the summer, the purchasing manufacturer’s index has begun to show contraction again (in this index, anything below 50 is contraction while above 50 is expansion). While this figure is noisy and can point to contraction outside of a recession, we have never seen a recession with a figure well above 55 or so. Again, this is just another indicator that shows weakness in the overall economy.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

Well, so much to a summer break.

Markets around the world are shedding price today with Japan’s main stock index closing down over 12%, and European markets also selling down. And this is after the Federal Reserve signaled last week that rate cuts are likely to begin in September. For years now, investors have looked to central bank rate cuts as a bullish signal. Today, however, it seems that investors have suddenly changed their minds and come to the realization that, in fact, central banks tend to cut rates when the economy is in danger of recession.

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While it is always difficult to tell when “it” begins, this does feel like a strong shift in market senitment. Any regular readers will know that I have been cautious for some time now as the fundamental economic data has not been strong enough to justify such strong run-ups in stock markets. As I have mentioned many times by now, the Federal Reserve cutting rates at this stage is a recessionary signal, not a bullish one. Only now does the broader market appear to agree. And, of course, we cannot forget the trouble brewing in commercial real estate that is only now coming to a head, trouble that will likely spill into the broader global economy.

This is not a time for panic, of course. For our clients, we took steps to mitigate the risk of a recessionary market awhile ago. If, however, you are worried about how your portoflio is positioned, this may well be a good time to get a second opinion — something we would be happy to offer.

Chart of the Week

One recessionary signal that I follow is job openings as a percentage of the population. Typically, before a recession, job openings tend to top out and begin to fall. This metric was heavily skewed by Covid, however. After seeing a very large and sudden increase in job openings, we saw this figure move back down toward its pre-2019 trend (the blue dashed line).

The point is, over the past year or so, this figure has begun to move below its pre-2019 trend levels. In my view, this is recessionary because we are seeing fewer job openings than we would otherwise expect if the economy was still growing in line with the 2010 to 2019 trend.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

This week we get data on the health of the labor market. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.9%, with about 170,000 jobs created, while job openings are expected to fall a touch. Unemployment is obviously an important input into the economy, and figures much different than what are expected could easily push markets around.

Last week the big news was the revision to economic growth in the first quarter, which was lower than initially believed — certainly a concern. In addition, we also got a look at the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation which posted in-line with expectations (and markets rallied on the news).

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Overall, I am still cautious. Corporate earnings are lackluster, and the fundemental drivers of the economy (especially the consumer) are showing signs of faltering. However, this pre-recession phase is taking a long time to play out, and while markets aren’t exactly going to the moon, they are edging higher. Understanding what risks you can reasonably take is very important in this environment, but it also means that we probably shouldn’t be sitting on the sidelines. Exactly how all of this plays out for you and your portfolio is something we should discuss.

Chart of the Week

One of the strange things about the post-Covid economic cycle has been how strongly monetary policy (which is what the Federal Reserve controls) and fiscal policy (which is what the legislature/president controls) have been pulling in opposite directions. Fathom Consulting estimates that, despite the Federal Reserve’s dramatic increase in interest rates, overall policy is still pretty loose. This makes it difficult to pull down inflation, and also increases the likelihood that the economy runs too hot (which is “paid for” with a deeper recession).

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.