Category: Uncategorized

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

This week’s big news is still Trump’s tariff regime — the ongoing questions of who/what is included and who/what is excluded. The Trump administration announced a 90-day pause last week on tariffs to all countries except China, with whom the US tariff rate now stands around 130%. There are some limited exceptions (including smartphones and some electronics). China, of course, responded with sweeping tariffs on US-made goods.

If global tariffs do end up being rolled back, that will be an overall good for the US economy. On our current course (and, admittedly, that course changes almost daily), with our current tariff rate on China I see the US slipping into a recession, but not as bad a one as I feared last week.

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In other news, earnings season as begun. Investors will be digesting reports over the next couple of weeks. In particular, there will be many quesitons about the new trade regime the Trump administration is pursuing. Earnings are expected to grow about 10% over this time last year (which is good growth — a lone bright spot among the bad economic data), but outlooks will be scrutinized closely. If investors are unconvinced this growth can continue, I expect to see markets deteriorate further (though less suddenly than last week).

Lastly, there is the economic data to consider. On the upside, inflation posted slightly lower than expected. If that holds, we may see a Fed more able to deal with a downturn. This week, we will see retail sales (an important figure!) and industrial production.

Overall, I am reinforcing my view that a recession is likely this year. It probably has not already begun as earnings contractions are a hallmark of recessionary environments. That said, markets tend to anticipate recessions by 3 to 6 months. As I mentioned last week, now is the time to talk to a financial advisor about preparing your portfolio for a recession.

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart (from Fathom Consulting) demonstrates the hand-wringing over the Trump Administration’s new tariff regime. As the chart shows, the effective tariff rate is moving from just under 5% to over 30% — a significant increase. Tariffs increase the price of goods. Some of that increase is absorbed by the importing business (lowering profits, bad for investors), and some of it is passed along to consumers (bad for consumer spending, which is about 75% of the US economy). While others can debate the merits of the tradeoffs involved, investors need to be aware of the change in the bottom line of businesses and the economy!

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

The trade war begins.

Tariffs were far worse than most expected, and the methodology used to create them was quite shallow. Essentially, the Trump administration simply looked at the balance of trade between the US and another country and roughly estimated what increase tariff would make imports fall enough to match US exports to that country. They then added a baseline tariff of 10% to everyone, which makes little sense. The UK, for example, was hit with the baseline tariff of 10% despite the US having a trade surplus with the UK (we export more than we import, Trump’s stated goal of this policy). This method yielded absurd results, like a 29% tariff levied on Norfolk island, home to a mere 2200 people and exporting a whopping $270,000 to the US.

There is no way to slice this as a positive, in my view. This is a massive, self-inflicted economic wound. Tariffs are taxes paid by consumers, and the Trump administration just levied a giant extra tax on the entire US economy. Without a quick U-turn, I cannot see how we avoid significantly higher price inflation and a significant economic contraction. In short, this is a return to the policies that created the terrible stagflation in the early 1980s.

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That said, we had been prepared. As I have mentioned repeatedly in these weekly updates, I have been cautious. A recession has been brewing for a while now, and there is always a trigger that pushes the economy over the edge — it just so happens that this time it is tariffs. For our clients, we have been much heavier cash than we normally would be, and we have been that way since at least late February (though every client is different). Of course, if the Trump administration removes this extra tax, we may well get a signficant rally in markets, so that is something we will watch for.

How low can markets go? In a typical recession, we see US markets sell down 30% to 40% off of their highs. That would put the S&P 500 selling down to around 3660 to 4270 (Jan 2020 levels). In more extreme recessions, we see 50% to 60% drops in markets. That would put the S&P 500 down around 2440 to 3050, levels we haven’t seen since 2016.

We will have to wait and see how this develops, but for investors within five years of their goals this market environment might be very damanging. If you are not already a client, now is the time to have a conversation with us about your portfolio.

Chart of the Week

Personal consumption — basically, people buying stuff — has been the driver of US economic growth for many years now, as this week’s chart demonstrates. As a way to look at the problem of tariffs from a different angle, this week’s chart shows that personal consumption represented about 2.5 percentage points of GDP growth in the last quarter of 2024. That chunk of economic growth now faces a new 22.5% tax. It is easy to see how a reduction in consumption — and it wouldn’t have to be a big reduction — could push us into a recession.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

Tariffs begin taking effect this week, and it has been automakers who are in the crosshairs. The first tariffs come online April 1, and many automakers are warning of significantly increased costs to consumers and substantial time and cash to retool their supply chains.

Price pressures have remained stubborn. Last week, we saw the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (personal consumption expenditures) post slightly higher than expected. Coupled with their commentary from the week before, it appears that the Fed may be unable to offer relief to investors any time soon. If stagflation sets in, it may be an even longer time before central banks are able to come to the aid of investors.

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We see more important economic data this week, including job openings, manufacturing and services health, and the unemployment rate. All are important, but it does appear that investors now see a recession as much more likely. Earnings may serve to change market sentiment, but those are still two weeks away and CEOs are very pessimistic, with almost half believing a recession is likely within the next 12 months.

In short, the Fed has been sidelined by stagflation fears, the economic data is not good, and tariffs are sowing doubt for US growth. A very good earnings season may salvage the outlook, but that seems unlikely given the sentiment of CEOs. For investors with goals to achieve in the next few years, I believe this is a time for caution.

Chart of the Week

One of the common selling points I here about cryptocurrency — specifically Bitcoin — is that it offers diversification benefits. Because different forces push it around, it is argued, it can help you reduce risk in your portfolio when held with US stocks. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen that argument work out so far. As the chart shows, Bitcoin has moved up with stocks (specifically US technology stocks), and moved down with stocks as well. It is, in that sense, just like owning US tech stocks, but with more volatility and bouts of 10% 1-day losses (or gains).

This isn’t to say you shouldn’t own it in your portfolio, rather (1) much of the analysis we read on the internet about crypto is easily disproven with a simple look at the data, and (2) if you are going to own it, understand exactly why you own it!

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

Constructing a narrative around market and economic data is both beneficial and troublesome. Beneficial, because it helps our human minds take in data by making that data part of a story. We are generally better at understanding how stories develop, and — more importantly — how they might end. Troublesome, because narratives can capture our minds and keep us from taking in data that is contray to the story we have constructed. As investors we need to use narratives, but not hold too tightly to them.

Why does this matter? Because, right now, the economic data is difficult to parse. It has consistently given support to more than one narrative, and, just last week, the Fed highlighed yet another narrative to consider: stagflation. Stagflation is when the economy stops growing while prices keep going up. It is damaging because, typically, prices fall when economic growth stumbles and the Fed cutting interest rates leads to improved growth and higher prices. Stagflation, however, ties the hands of the central bank. They can’t spur economic growth by cutting rates because that would send prices higher, while raising rates would worsen economic growth and do little to offset prices.

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Typically, stagflation is the result of a supply imablance in the economy. Enough people want certain goods and yet those goods cannot be produced and delivered efficiently, usually due to a policy that constrains businesses. Last week’s projections by the Federal Reserve suggested that they belive stagflation is now the likely narrative for the US economy. Better than recession, I suppose, but not by much.

My view is that a recession is still the most likely outcome, though any number of things could serve to reverse that. At the moment, tariff policies threaten to constrain businesses (and hence the stagflation narrative), but the Trump administration has already walked some of that back. In any event, the real issue facing the US eocnomy at the moment is employment, which has continued to worsen, and put US consumers under additional strain (see this week’s chart).

Chart of the Week

One clue that all is not well with US consumers has been the consistent increase in mortgage delinquencies. While dwarfed by the delinquencies seen in the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 – 2010, and the Covid lockdown of 2020 – 2021, delinquencies have risen by around 20%, every quarter, for the last six quarters in a row. If we assume that people pay to keep their homes first, this is a signal that peeople are experiencing quite a bit of strain, and other spending may also be under pressure.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

It is Fed week! Investors expect no change in rates. In fact, markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady until their June 18 meeting. On the data front, we also see retail sales and industrial production this week. After last week’s surprisingly low consumer sentiment report, the health of retail sales is becoming more important.

Last week, inflation came in basically in-line with expectations, which markets reacted pleasantly to. I mentioned the 5800 level being important — were it breached prices were likely to become slippery (it was breached, and prices did become slippery). The next important level is 5500. There has been some support here, but I don’t expect it to hold without a significant change in the underlying economic data.

Again, I am affirming my view that a recession is brewing (if not already here). The tariff war is likely to be the catalyst, but the economic data has been decaying for some time now. To change my view on this, I would need to see the unemployment rate fall (due to job gains, not people leaving the labor force as has been the recent reasons for its fall), strong earnings growth, and strong retail sales.

Chart of the Week

We have discussed this figure before, but bankruptcy rates in the US have increased to recessionary levels over the last year. Starting in early 2024, we saw a 40% increase bankruptcy filings. Though that figure has come down somewhat, it still remains very elevated. As the chart shows, this expansion in bankruptcies is a tell-tale indicator of a recessionary environment (with the Covid recession being the exception).

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

Employment was center-stage last week with the unemployment rate ticking up slightly to 4.1%. More surprising, however, was the mediocre job creation number of 151,000. Total job creation has been on a steady decline through last year into this one, and that is an ongoing concern. We also saw consumer credit increase in January by $18 billion — about $4 billion more than expected.

This week is an important data week, with job opening figures and the all-important inflation figure for February. Of course, all of this could easily move markets, especially the inflation figure. Fed chair Powell mentioned last week that the Fed does not need to be in a hurry to cut rates. Markets were predictably dissapointed. A higher-than-expected inflation print would easily push prices lower as investors adjust their rate-cut expectations.

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Overall, I am reinforcing my view that the economy is likely to see a recession soon, especially with the trade war gaining steam. The upward momentum in markets has stalled and, after last week’s price breakdown, perhaps begun trending downward. This week’s chart illustrates that we are likely moving into a recessionary market environment, defined by downward momentum and deteriorating economic data. I am again urging caution and possible risk controls for investors who need them. Understanding your downside risk tolerance is a layer of analysis we do here at Directional — we’d love to talk with you.

Chart of the Week

Each market environment has its own defining characteristics. In an expansion, we see strong market momentum and strengthening economic fundamentals. However, as the economic cycle comes to an end we see a long, slow deterioration of economic fundamentals, but market momentum remains strong. In a recession, market momentum finally gives way and turns downward. As the economy heals, the economic data improves, but momentum tends to lag behind.

As the chart shows, we have moved closer to the “recession” quadrant over the last month or so, largely driven by the deterioration of market momentum. Last week’s break below the key 5800 level by the S&P 500 was a bearish signal as it saw the reversal of the strong upward push we had seen over the last 18 months.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

Markets have steadily deteriorated in the face of a growing trade war. As it stands, US stocks have given back all of their post-election gains. Moreover, we saw a break below the key level of 5800 in the S&P 500 today. While it is never easy to tell, this does signal to me a significant negative shift in markets.

As I have said many times, the underlying economic data is poor, despite corporate earnings being very good. With a trade war in full swing and the security of Europe in doubt, it appears investors are becoming more convinced that such strong earnings are unlikely to continue. Of course, the waning hype in AI is also contributing to investor skepticism.

Overall, I am again urging caution, as I have been for some time. We need to see economic data improving — significant job gains, a jump in retail sales, service sector expansion — for the risks of recession to really go away. That said, markets could stage a comeback were the Fed to jump in with a surprise rate cut, or if the Trump administration suddenly rolls back tariffs in a negotiation.

Chart of the Week

How tariffs affect prices is a complicated question to answer. The Wall Street Journal recently offered a very helpful analysis that demonstrated that the affects are not the same for all types of products. Generally, for products with lots of competition and little brand value, there is almost no shift in consumer prices. However, for products with only one source (like Avacados which are almost exclusively imported from Mexico), prices are likely to shift quite a bit.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

Earnings continue nicely — it looks like th S&P 500 will deliver earnings growth of around 17%, which is very good. Looking ahead, analysts do not expect these above-average growth numbers to continue, with expectations for the next reports to be more like 8% to 9%. Still good, but average.

The big news last week was the inflation report which came in a bit hotter than expected, and retail sales which came in lower than expected. This, of course, is interpreted through the lens of what the Fed might do — doubts are rising about whether further rate cuts can happen in the near future. There is also concern that the US consumer is beginning to struggle.

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Overall, as I have said before, the US economy appears to be at a crossroads. Most of the underlying data is not positive, yet earnings have been strong. Investors and CEOs are worried about the impact of tariffs, but pinning down what that impact may be is difficult. In all, I am in a wait-and-see mode. I would like to see employment improve and earnings growth continue, but I am currently seeing several classic recession signals, and that does have me worried about adding risk.

Chart of the Week

There has been quite a lot of talk about the sustainability of US federal government debt. One difficulty in measuring things like “sustainability” is that there is no agreed-upon model that can tell when debts become unsustainable. As rates have increased over the past several years, the interest cost of US debt has more than doubled. As it stands, the US will be paying more than $1 trillion next year just on interest costs.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

This is a light data week, and corporate earnings reports are wrapping up. Earnings results have been very good, with companies growing earnings around 16% over this time last year. This has created a bit of a tug-of-war in markets because, while earnings have been good, the economic outlook has been worsening. “Tariffs”, for example, has been a recurring conversation in earnings calls, and most companies appear to not know what effect tariffs will have on their earnings moving forward.

Last week we saw employment data, which was worse than expected. The US created only 143,000 jobs last month, which is below the amount required to keep pace with population growth. The unemployment rate dropped, but almost entirely due to the change in population — the actual number of unemployed stayed the same (6.8 million). Consumers also appear strained after last week’s very surprising jump in credit outstanding — rather than the $12 billion expected, it appears consumers have used almost $41 billion of credit in December.

Trump’s trade war has also picked up steam. Responding to US actions, China announced 15% tariffs on several goods including trucks, natural gas, coal, and oil. Today, the administration is expected to announce 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

As I have said, the economic picture is mixed with underlying data weakening but corporate earnings coming in strong. Employment will need to improve, and earnings remain strong for my outlook to switch from “meh” to growth.

Chart of the Week

The Trump administration has repeatedly mentioned two dynamics when it comes to other countries: their trade balance with the US and their military spending. This week’s chart looks at European countries on those two axes, with military spending on the horizontal and their trade balance with the US on the vertical. The top-left corner is probably in Trump’s crosshairs as these countries export much more to the US than they import, and their spending is well below the 2% NATO target on defense.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

by Franklin J. Parker, CFA

It appears the trade war is on. The Trump Administration imposed 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10% tariffs on goods from China. There is some hope a deal can be reached before they take effect on Tuesday, but that seems ever-more unlikely. It also appears the European Union may be next in the firing line.

Global markets have opened much lower today, and the US dollar has become much stronger. A stonger dollar has the opposite affect to tariffs by making US exports less appealing to foreign buyers (because their currency is weaker), and it makes importing stuff to the US more appealing (because your dollar can buy more stuff in other countries). In theory, currency strength can completely eliminate the impact of tariffs, but, of course, economies are very complex and dynamic machines so pinning down the net effect is impossible until after the fact.

Earnings are still in full swing, with about 1/3 of the S&P 500 companies having reported their earnings. So far, earnings growth has been very good, and with recent price drops, valuations may begin to make sense again. And, of course, last week was the Fed meeting. Powell’s commentary suggested that the Fed is content to keep rates where they are for the time being, and markets now expect cuts to resume in May.

Overall, I still see mixed signals. A trade war could well tip the US economy into recession, but we have yet to see how the US’s largest trading partners will respond to Trump’s recent policy actions. It could well be that this is a Trumpian negotiating tactic, and the tariffs (and trade war) disappear just as quickly as they came. In the end, I am still on recession watch, but, as I have said before, I may well shift my view if the data continues to improve.

Chart of the Week

A closer look at US trade with Canada shows that the entirety of the US’s trade deficit with Canada is due to imports of oil & gas. Factoring that out, the US exports more to Canada than it imports, when measured as a percentage of the Canadian economy. What’s more, when measured as a percentage of the US economy, trade with Canada has been mostly balanced, currently standing at less than half a percent of the total economy.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Directional Advisors to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professionals, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.